Insights from Leading Chinese PV Giants: 2025 Global Photovoltaic Market Outlook

As we enter 2025, the photovoltaic (PV) industry continues its steady progress despite the challenges of 2024. In an environment marked by uncertainty, the industry has continued to make meaningful contributions to the global energy transition, consistently driving the shift toward sustainable, green energy. But what does 2025 hold for the PV industry? Let's take a look at how some of the leading Chinese companies are responding to investor inquiries regarding the future.

Zhong Baoshen, Chairman of LONGi at the Davos Conference 2025 source: Longi

LONGi（隆基绿能）

Q: How do you foresee global PV demand changing in 2025, and what’s the outlook for the domestic market?

A: Since 2024, the global push for renewable energy has been met with a continuous flow of supportive policies. With the ongoing backing for solar power and its economic viability, we anticipate a 15%-20% growth in global PV installations in 2025. In traditional markets like China and Europe, we expect a phase of steady growth. Meanwhile, emerging markets in regions such as the Middle East, South Asia, and Africa are accelerating energy transformation, and we expect these regions to drive substantial demand, fueling global PV growth.

Domestically, China’s National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) issued guidelines in October 2024 that emphasize renewable energy in underdeveloped areas, including the rapid development of large-scale wind and solar farms in deserts and remote areas. These policies, along with the continued focus on rooftop PV installations and public building requirements, should open up new opportunities in the domestic market. As a result, we project a 10%-15% growth in domestic PV installations in 2025, even with a high base.

Q: Will the industry experience significant fluctuations again in 2025?

A: After the volatility of the first three quarters of 2024, the industry is now focused on restoring a healthy and sustainable growth trajectory. Overall, we expect the market in 2025 to adopt a more rational and stable path.

source: Tongwei

Tongwei Co.（通威股份）

Q: How does the company view the demand for PV installations in the coming year?

A: Short-term global demand remains challenging to predict, given the varying installation bases, electricity pricing policies, and demand release patterns across different countries and regions. Emerging markets such as the Middle East and South Africa still show strong short-term demand for PV installations. While growth has slowed in traditional markets like Europe and the U.S., we expect demand to be bolstered as the U.S. enters an interest rate reduction cycle, lowering financing costs for end-stage developers and stimulating further demand.

Looking long-term, solar power remains the most cost-effective source of primary energy. Its penetration rate in power generation markets is still low, leaving room for significant growth. Short-term volatility and fluctuations in growth rates are to be expected as part of the industry’s maturation.

source: Jinko Solar

JinkoSolar（晶科能源）

Q: What is JinkoSolar’s forecast for global PV demand?

A: We anticipate steady demand growth globally in 2025, with a projected increase of 10%-20%. In China, we expect demand to remain stable, with a sustained demand for around 250GW. In the U.S., despite some short-term policy uncertainty, we expect a 20% growth over the next 3-5 years due to long-term renewable energy commitments. Europe will likely see stable growth of around 10%-15%, with new projects and green energy policies slated to usher in a new cycle of growth in 2026-2027.

The Middle East presents a strong demand for large-scale projects, with growth expected to hit 50% in 2025 and continue with 20% growth annually for the next 3-5 years. Emerging markets, similar to Pakistan in 2024, are expected to experience surges in demand, which will significantly contribute to global PV growth.

source: JA Solar

JA Solar（晶澳科技）

Q: How do you see the growth of overseas markets, including Europe and Southern Europe, in 2025?

A: The European market saw some slowdown in 2024, especially in countries like Germany and the Netherlands, where economic downturns affected electricity pricing and consumption. However, due to the region's diverse country structure, growth points are more scattered, making it harder to predict accurately. Overall, we expect steady growth in Europe in 2025.

Q: What about the growth potential in Africa, Asia, and Latin America?

A: In regions with relatively weak infrastructure, such as Asia, Africa, and Latin America, distributed PV systems and microgrids are becoming increasingly popular. Latin America saw impressive growth in 2024, and we expect these emerging markets to continue strong growth in 2025.

source: Trina Solar

Trina Solar（天合光能）

Q: How does the company view the future of the PV module market?

A: After years of rapid growth, the PV module market is now maturing. As the base expands, the growth rate will naturally slow. However, in the global energy transition, solar power will continue to showcase its cost and application advantages, ensuring steady market growth. Unlike most of its competitors, Trina Solar has diversified its portfolio by building comprehensive solar + storage solutions that include modules, storage systems, and distributed systems. This approach provides us with broader market opportunities and allows us to grow beyond just the module market. The rapid expansion of energy storage, as well as our increasing presence in international markets, will drive our future growth.

Q: What trends do you foresee in the PV industry, and how will competition evolve?

A: As PERC production capacities consolidate and smaller players exit, we expect profit margins in the industry to improve. However, following this recovery, the industry landscape will change significantly. Companies' products and profitability will become more differentiated, and relying solely on production scale to estimate profits will no longer be effective. We foresee an increasing shift from component supply to the delivery and management of integrated solar + storage systems. To enhance profitability and market share, companies will need to offer multi-product technologies, integration capabilities, and full lifecycle solutions. Trina Solar recognized this trend early in 2016 and began transitioning from a module manufacturer to a comprehensive energy solution provider, positioning us for success in the future solar + storage competition.

Q: How does Trina Solar view future overseas markets?

A: The demand for PV solutions is global, and companies must have strong global branding and international production capabilities. Given the significant differences between regional markets, it’s essential for companies to implement tailored strategies for each country. Overall, the barriers in overseas markets are higher than those in domestic markets, but higher barriers also present higher potential returns. As the global PV market continues to grow in complexity, companies will need to improve their capabilities, particularly in local operations. Simply having overseas production capacity is not enough—companies will also need strong partnerships, sound business cooperation, and even equity collaborations. Only through cooperation with diverse global partners, under different regulatory frameworks, can companies achieve the best balance between risk and return in the face of uncertainty.